How to test your biggest project assumption

I recently met with an up-and-coming project manager and ran a readiness check on her programme.

It was a big one that had been running for some time.

The work was likely to deliver large, complex social change. A programme manager was due to start soon, and she would be stepping into a deputy role.

One area came out red.

The programme was not yet learning by experimenting or testing its assumptions.

What we found

We used the simple what-how technique.

First, we looked at the what.

• What is the project trying to achieve?
• Is that the right goal?

Then we looked at the how.

• How will the programme get there?
• What needs to be true for the plan to work?

One big assumption stood out.

If the solution became operational, would it keep getting long-term funding?

Why this mattered

Complex projects often fail because they move into delivery against things they have not proved yet.

This programme was not planning to test the riskiest assumptions while the work was still small and safe.

That is one reason projects over-run. It is also one reason project leaders burn out.

Too much effort gets built around things that were never tested early enough.

What we did next

The next step was not to build the whole thing.

It was to create a quick proof of concept and test it with future funders.

Then, if that looked promising, start with one small pilot, learn in the real world, and scale only when the evidence was stronger.